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Opinion: Reapportionment, redistricting, gerrymandering

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By Paul Rozycki

Monday, February 21, 2011

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With all the turmoil in the Middle East, union busting in Wisconsin and budget slashing in Lansing, it may seem rather trivial to suggest that mapmaking is an important issue right now.

But it is.

After the census in the first year of every decade, the political maps are set for the next 10 years. And those maps can play a huge role in who gets elected, what gets done in government and who gets cut and who doesn't.

Reapportionment, the shift of the 435 U.S. House seats from one state to another, is the official reason for the U.S. Census every decade. Every 10 years some states gain and some states lose seats.

Michigan, again, has lost a seat in the House. In 2012 we'll be down to 14 members of the House from our current 15. At one time, a few decades ago, we had 19 House members. Generally, the Midwest and northeastern states have lost seats in recent decades, as the south and southwest have gained them.

As a result Michigan will face two big changes.

First, of course, we will lose one member of our House delegation along with his vote. (We'll also lose one vote in the Electoral College.)

Second, the state legislature gets to decide who gets bumped out of this game of musical chairs. Since the majority of the state lawmakers are Republicans we can expect a Democrat to be forced out.

Probable guess?

Look for two suburban Detroit Democrats, Gary Peters (9th District) and Sander Levin (12th District) to be thrown together for the next election.

Redistricting is the redrawing of all other election districts — state senate, state house, county commission, city council and others — so that there are the same number of people in each district. But this apparently simple numerical exercise is also fraught with partisan politics.

Again, the state legislature will redraw new districts for the 110 state house and 38 state senate districts. Some areas of the state will have slightly more representation (mostly west Michigan counties) and some will have less (Genesee, Saginaw and Wayne counties).

As those lines get redrawn, incumbents can again be thrown together in the same district. Democrats will be on the losing end of this process too, and may see several incumbents forced to face off with each other.

A big question in Genesee County is will Democrats Woodrow Stanley and Jim Ananich be put in the same district and forced to run against each other.

Gerrymandering is the drawing of odd shaped election districts to favor one party. The odd word comes from Eldridge Gerry, once governor of Massachusetts, who drew (in the eyes of his opponents) a salamander shaped district to help his own party.

The Supreme Court has said that election districts must be essentially equal in population but hasn't said much about how they can be shaped. And how you arrange district lines can make a huge difference in what party wins.

Consider the following very basic example.

Assume that a state contains 12 units of people and half support the X party and the other half support the O party. If you were to elect four people from this state, you would need three units of people in each district. Since half the state belongs to the X party and half the state belongs to the O party, it would be very easy to be fair.  Simply draw four horizontal lines and you'd elect two Xs and two Os.

X X X = X district

O O O  = O district

X X X = X district

O O O = O district

But you don't have to be fair. If you were to round up the three bottom Os in one district and then draw three vertical districts, composed each of two Xs and one O, you would elect three Xs and one O in a state where they are equally balanced.

O O O = O district

X O X = X district

X O X = X district

X O X = X district

Clearly the way districts are shaped can help one party and hurt the other.

So how can the average person make a difference in this complex process? In Lansing, the state legislature will draw the lines for the U.S. House, State Senate and State House districts. The Republicans are the majority and they may have hearings for the public to register their views.

On the local level a panel composed of the County Prosecutor David Leyton, County Clerk Michael Carr, County Treasurer Deb Cherry and the chairpersons of the two major parties, Art Reyes, Democrat, and Prudy Adam, Republican, will draw the lines for Genesee County. The city clerk Inez Brown, plays a major role in redrawing the city council districts.

It is expected that there will be public hearings on the local level as the districts are created. Look in the local media or check the League of Women Voter's web site for updates.

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Paul Rozycki is a professor of political science at Mott Community College. He has lived in Flint since 1969 and has been involved with and observed Flint politics for many years. He is author of Politics and Government in Michigan (with Jim Hanley) and A Clearer Image: The History of Mott Community College.

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