Opinion: Is Snyder a shoo-in for governor?

After the August primary all the conventional wisdom suggests that Republican Rick Snyder will be the next governor of Michigan. More than a few commentators have said as much, declared the campaign over, and advised Snyder to start packing his bags for Lansing.

And they have some strong reasons for their views.

Snyder won handily over four other opponents. The Republicans gathered twice as many votes as the Democrats in the primary. Snyder seems to have been able to reach out to independents and even some Democrats during the primary election. So far, Snyder is much better funded than the Democrat's Virg Bernero. Bernero hasn't even been able to get a clear endorsement from his defeated rival, House Speaker Andy Dillon. Right now most polls give Snyder a very healthy lead over Bernero.

All of this means that Snyder is a shoo-in and that Bernero might just as well give up, right?

Well, maybe. But according to always quotable Yogi Berra, "It's ain't over until it's over."

While Bernero has a lot of catching up to do, there are several ways he might turn things around.

First, the election is more than two months away — a long time in politics. Two months ago, neither Snyder nor Bernero, were the front-runners for their parties.

Second, jobs and the economy are the obvious big issue in Michigan. It's the economy that has tainted the Granholm administration and led most politicians to run away from her. If the economy starts to pick up (note the GM turnaround) political fortunes could change as quickly.

Third, while Snyder is a very successful entrepreneur, he is new to electoral politics. For all the talk about "running government like a business," businessmen don't always make good politicians. Remember Dick DeVos who was supposed to beat Granholm easily in 2006? He lost by a landslide. Yes, George Romney was a successful businessman and governor, but that was a long time ago.

Fourth, the debates are often critical. Bernero has proven he can handle himself in public forums and enjoys the give and take of politics. Snyder, in trying to be a different kind of candidate, avoided most of the debates in the Republican primary. He may be good, but so far is untested and has limited experience.

Fifth, Snyder will need to mend some fences in his own party. In particular, the Right to Life groups and the Tea Party types are still uneasy about him. If he can't pull his party together he's in trouble.

(To be fair, Bernero faces a similar problem and needs to get the support of the Dillon Democrats.)

So, it's true the winds are blowing Snyder's way right now. As we know with Michigan's weather, the wind can change quickly and it's too early to start moving Snyder's "Tough Nerd" desk into the governor's office just yet.

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Paul Rozycki is a professor of political science at Mott Community College. He has lived in Flint since 1969 and has been involved with and observed Flint politics for many years. He is author of Politics and Government in Michigan (with Jim Hanley) and A Clearer Image: The History of Mott Community College.

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